Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 9.791737 12.096178 14.682906 17.781014 21.369249 25.372888 30.155369
2025-12-28 6.678353 9.632238 13.338865 18.239805 24.450625 31.957632 41.606221
2026-01-04 4.900424 8.033857 12.332817 18.461427 26.753355 37.351804 51.663335
2026-01-11 3.790876 6.966761 11.674437 18.819646 29.008851 42.612188 61.683988
2026-01-18 3.055908 6.236404 11.288571 19.382769 31.445279 48.133980 72.246708
2026-01-25 2.329381 5.315689 10.412994 19.035911 32.452837 51.660247 80.210354
2026-02-01 1.875907 4.747097 9.976127 19.252342 34.226356 56.283610 89.844065
2026-02-08 1.446122 4.096364 9.267214 18.900852 35.038753 59.491699 97.554808
2026-02-15 1.090950 3.486288 8.506589 18.332994 35.405108 61.990290 104.282196
2026-02-22 0.922340 3.249295 8.408919 18.896981 37.623973 67.381095 115.477120
2026-03-01 0.716801 2.846180 7.896435 18.623766 38.385880 70.510457 123.361222
2026-03-08 0.575472 2.562187 7.578160 18.665067 39.663810 74.485279 132.659431
2026-03-15 0.397493 2.094424 6.776476 17.707910 39.200572 75.796286 138.180345
2026-03-22 0.324843 1.939847 6.688194 18.204286 41.429655 81.683564 151.228926
2026-03-29 0.255929 1.757891 6.487797 18.428288 43.152320 86.789168 163.211316
2026-04-05 0.205025 1.616158 6.359399 18.786195 45.141716 92.425010 176.245154
2026-04-12 0.168907 1.516774 6.325530 19.348550 47.557689 98.892709 190.856759
2026-04-19 0.121075 1.312403 5.928493 19.002173 48.126491 102.128984 200.207175
2026-04-26 0.093806 1.197194 5.775252 19.218304 49.839459 107.458264 213.227955
2026-05-03 0.065361 1.034699 5.417171 18.867302 50.335900 110.594513 222.614820
2026-05-10 0.042637 0.872400 5.002217 18.300236 50.313951 112.757138 230.379899
2026-05-17 0.034319 0.827249 5.009616 18.863436 52.772630 119.617970 246.485512
2026-05-24 0.022848 0.718515 4.729326 18.590602 53.359616 122.973165 256.553256